Estonian security expert: Russia is losing strategic ground after Washington summit

Estonian security analyst Rainer Saks writes the latest Washington summit has dealt Russia a strategic setback, with the United States and Europe now speaking in near lockstep on Ukraine’s defense.

According to Saks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emerged from the high-level meetings with two critical messages. First, the contentious issue of occupied territories was left off the Washington agenda, to be addressed only in direct talks between Kyiv and Moscow. That move, Saks argues, underscored Ukraine’s sovereignty while relieving Western leaders from having to stake rigid positions on borders.

Instead, discussions focused on security guarantees for Ukraine. While details remain undisclosed, President Biden signaled readiness to increase U.S. commitments, including a European-backed $100 billion arms financing mechanism. The question of Western troops on Ukrainian soil remains unresolved.

At the same time, Saks notes, the White House appears to be preparing a three-way summit: first, a bilateral meeting between the presidents of Ukraine and Russia, followed by U.S. participation. Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov confirmed that Biden and Putin spoke by phone and that Moscow is, at least in principle, open to direct talks with Kyiv.

“This marks a notable shift,” Saks writes. “The Kremlin seems to recognize that time-buying tactics are running out, and opportunities to stall are narrowing compared to the spring.”

Still, Saks warns against assuming progress will come quickly. “The possibility of meetings in the coming weeks exists, but nothing is guaranteed,” he notes.

Meanwhile, Russian military activity is expected to intensify. Ukrainian commander Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi has reported that Moscow is preparing a new southern offensive toward Zaporizhzhia, redeploying elite airborne and marine units from Kursk and Sumy. Yet this reshuffling highlights a weakness: Russia is moving existing forces rather than fielding fresh reserves.

According to Saks, this dynamic could blunt Moscow’s offensive ambitions. “Political orders for a southern breakthrough are clear,” Syrskyi said, “but it’s uncertain whether Russia has the capacity to deliver.”

For Ukraine, long-term resistance hinges on acquiring cutting-edge military technology, Syrskyi stressed. Only by inflicting heavy losses, he said, can Ukraine push Moscow toward meaningful negotiations.

Despite expectations of tension and drama, the Washington summit showed something else: a united Western front. For Russia, Saks concludes, that unity represents a strategic defeat—a sign that the ice, at last, is beginning to move.