Estonian security expert: Russian push runs dry on troops

Moscow has quietly pushed back its self-imposed deadline for seizing the entire Donbas, according to Estonian security expert Rainer Saks.

The original order to Russian forces was to secure the region by Aug. 1, 2025. That target has now slipped to the end of the year — and could be revised again in September, Ukrainian military intelligence warns.

Deputy Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Vadym Skibitsky says the Kremlin is now working off a longer horizon, aiming to declare victory in early 2026. Russia’s leadership is also weighing cuts to next year’s defense budget, though Skibitsky cautioned that such plans could be reshaped at any time.

In recent weeks, Russian units have redeployed from the Sumy sector toward southern fronts, setting the stage for a fresh offensive in Zaporizhzhia and Donbas this September. The troop movement, analysts note, underscores Moscow’s shortage of reserve forces.

Despite these constraints, Russian assaults continue at maximum available strength. Over the past year, the main axes of attack have remained unchanged. The lack of a larger push on the southern front, experts say, may reflect simple manpower limits — as well as the success of Ukraine’s strikes on Russian supply lines and rear-area positions in the south.

“Russia has been operating at full throttle, but they haven’t had the reserves to open new directions,” Saks wrote. “Ukrainian forces have been effective in disrupting their logistics, and that has made a difference.”