Estonian war analyst: on the eve of the parade, drone panic is rising in Russia

Estonian war analyst Teet Kalmus writes that growing sense of drone panic is reportedly sweeping across Russia as Ukrainian unmanned aerial systems continue to prove devastatingly effective—and Russian defenses increasingly helpless.

Now in the fourth year of the war, Ukraine has effectively neutralized the threat of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea region using sea drones. Coastal cities like Odesa and other nearby settlements are breathing easier, as Kyiv’s maritime tech has changed the game. The world is watching closely, as Ukraine’s innovative approach shows the way forward for countries that lack the deep pockets to build massive warships—but can afford precision sea drones.

Ukrainian journalist Vassil Pekhno reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin has responded by ordering 280 additional air defense systems to protect Moscow—many pulled from frontline zones. This strategic shift has left those areas more vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks, particularly via drone strikes, which are now easier to execute.

Instead of focusing on disrupting Russia’s May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow, Ukraine appears to be making more strategic use of its capabilities—by striking actual targets inside Russia during the same time window.

According to the Telegram channel Nezygar, Russia is so concerned about potential disruption that it’s quietly trying to broker a deal with Ukraine—reportedly using the United Arab Emirates as a go-between—to keep drones grounded during the parade.
But panic is spreading fast. Russian Z-channels are openly admitting that even Murmansk, deep in the Arctic Circle, is no longer considered safe from Ukrainian drones—let alone Moscow.

A fitting finale? Ukrainian social media users are floating the idea of staging a dramatic “fireworks show” of their own during the May 9 festivities—with drone strikes lighting up targets in Crimea and Novorossiysk.