Expert: With the strikes on Crimea, Ukraine has demonstrated that Russia wont bring unstoppable consequences
Estonian security expert Rainer Saks pointed out that Ukraine's strikes on Crimea have shown that Russia is not invulnerable. He mentioned in an interview with Vikerradio's "Uudis +" program that Russian forces have shifted to a defensive posture and can no longer initiate attacks on their own.
Saks noted that the frequent strikes on Crimea by Ukraine have changed the perception of Crimea as Russian territory in the eyes of Russia. This may result in a comprehensive and unexpected response from Russia, which Saks considered a significant achievement for Ukraine in terms of information and psychological warfare.
Furthermore, Saks observed that Russia is increasingly taking the daily strikes on its territory seriously, even addressing the defense of its civilian population. This change in attitude among the Russian people is expected to influence their perspective on the war.
Regarding Russia's challenges in defending its Black Sea Fleet, Saks mentioned that the attack on the fleet headquarters in Sevastopol had both psychological and practical implications. Repairing the stationary communication systems there has proven to be time-consuming for Russia. Saks also pointed out that mobile networks in Russia do not appear to be effective, and when setting up defensive lines, Russia relies on stationary cable connections.
He explained that Ukraine's current strategy is primarily focused on disrupting Russian logistics and rear operations, rather than attempting rapid large-scale territorial liberation through direct assault. He noted that their goal is to isolate Russian troops in specific areas before launching any major offensive operations, and he did not foresee quick operations happening in the coming weeks.
If Ukraine were to gain control of Tokmak, it would significantly impede Russian forces' ability to resupply, especially on the western bank of the Dnieper River, according to the expert.
Saks explained the media attention on the city of Tokmak in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, highlighting its strategic importance as it sits on a critical road crossing in southern Ukraine, only about 15km from the current front line. The road from Tokmak leads to the city of Melitopol to the Southwest. Saks emphasized, "If Ukrainian forces were to reach Melitopol, it would sever the land corridor between Crimea and Russia, which would be a significant strategic setback for Russia."